When I was reading The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, few weeks ago, I start asking myself:
Is Enterprise 2.0 a Black Swan?
First, it is a rare event, and hard to predict (if not un-predictable) even for people in the field, that such event gets started. At least, none of the major IT companies came up with the idea of Web2.0, as well as, Enterprise 2.0 (E2.0 here on). To my knowledge, they were all followers in this event. And, if we look at the future, the success of E2.0 will depends on many social factors inside (and outside) our organizations, and it needs changes in the way we are working together. It is not easy to predict.
Second, I am sure; E2.0 is of high impact to the future of large and small organizations. The impact will be similar to, and in a much higher magnitude, the introduction of E-mail into organization, decades ago. Interestingly, back then, E-mail had created lots of discussion and worries during its introduction into the workspace of many organizations.
Third, it will trigger lots of after-the-fact explanations for its occurrence. At the moment, E2.0 is still in its infancy for some organizations, and some companies do not even know about it. I can say that many of our managers do not expect much from it, and most would consider it as yet another new platform. And, after the fact, they will rationalize by high-sight, as if it had been expected.
E2.0 is a Black Swan. It is an on-going one, to be precise. Will it be a positive Black Swan or a negative one; it is up to you and how your organization is prepared for it.
